Trading expectancy is your average result per trade, measured in R (multiples of the amount you risk). This free calculator works it out from your win rate and average win and loss, or from a pasted list of results. It also shows the 90% confidence range, whether your sample is big enough to trust, and roughly how many trades you’d need before an edge could count as validated.
Enter your numbers to see your expectancy.
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
For example, winning 45% of trades at +2R and losing 55% at −1R gives 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade. The 90% range is that average plus and minus t × standard deviation ÷ √trades, using the t-distribution.
The same strategy at two sample sizes. (Illustrative example, computed with the calculator above.)
| Trades | Expectancy | 90% range | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | +0.35R | −0.06R to +0.76R | Developing |
| 100 | +0.35R | +0.10R to +0.60R | Validated |
The average is identical, but at 40 trades the range still reaches below zero, so the result could be luck. At 100 trades the whole range is above zero. How the verdict works, step by step, is in the methodology.
Free to use on your own site or blog. Paste this where you want the calculator to appear; please keep the credit link.
The average amount you make or lose per trade, measured in R — multiples of the amount you risked. Positive expectancy means your wins outweigh your losses on average; it combines how often you win with how much you win and lose.
Below 20 trades the range is too wide to say anything. From 30 trades a range that stays above zero is promising, and from 100 trades it counts as validated. These are the same gates Measure My Edge uses — see the methodology.
From a win rate and two averages, the calculator has to assume every win and every loss is the same size. Real results vary more, which makes the true range wider. Paste your actual results for an exact answer.
No. Everything is calculated in your browser; nothing you type is sent or saved. A share link contains only the numbers you entered.
Measure My Edge is an analysis and journaling tool. It does not provide financial advice or guarantee outcomes. Trading carries risk of loss. Results describe past trades and don’t predict future ones.